There is only a 25% chance of Cat 4-5, so that leaves 75% chance of Cat 3 or less, Welles. That's what I posted previously. <A HREF="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/205128.shtml?table" target="_blank">http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/205128.shtml?table</A> If you look at the chart 72-hours out, it also shows a 10% chance it's just going to be a tropical storm. That's in addition to the 25% chance Cat 1, 15% chance Cat 2, and 25% chance Cat 3. That equals 75%.