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Re: showmebill post# 15379

Monday, 09/19/2005 11:53:32 PM

Monday, September 19, 2005 11:53:32 PM

Post# of 157300
Showme... you're correct.

July 12 guidance was only revenue... IMO, it was the margin details in the August 11th release that did the most damage.

mid-October sounds like a good guess for 3Q guidance, but I wouldn't expect anything more than revenue. As for continued 400% yoy, it's not hard to imagine again for 3Q... with about 38M in 1st half, and 80M projected run-rate, we should see 3Q revenue possibly pushing 21M... I think a mid-October projection of 3Q revenue much below 20M would really hurt short term (but that's probably fodder for TA board instead of here). Beyond that, it's the November actuals (w/ margin) that will be the make/break point (JMO).

400%+ yoy beyond 3Q is unfathomable to me, but the market isn't expecting it, so runrate growth slowing to more reasonable yoy (until Strat-type explosion) wouldn't be damaging.

~rdw~




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