If the condition of the iron-ore industry were as bad as jbog imagines, we would not be seeing takeover bids at a premium such as this one for Northern Iron:
Northern Iron Ltd. said Monday it has received an initial takeover proposal from Swiss-based trading house Prominvest AG worth 525 million Australian dollars ($550 million), which is higher than an earlier A$518 million cash bid from India’s Aditya Birla Group… Aditya Birla sweetened its offer to A$1.40 a share earlier this month, prompting Northern Iron to agree to open its books to the Indian group.
…Northern Iron is currently producing around 2.1 million metric tons a year, but aims to reach its 2.8 million-tons-a-year nameplate capacity soon, and double concentrate production to 5.6 million tons annually by 2016 at a cost of up to $360 million.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”