The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[dewophile]

The alloy metals I'm involved in are at winter 09' prices. They still can't move inventory

i'm not sure what you do but i don't think one can assume all metals/raw materials are created equal. aluminum is in a long term slump. thermal coal is getting replaced by nat gas. etc.
what is somewhat unique to iron ore is the supply side. the conventional thinking is that there are many marginal producers that will shut down when levels drop below a certain threshold. thus even if demand is tepid most think there is a floor of between 110-120 at least for the next 3 or so years. i liken this to oil - if prices were below a certain level certain producers would eventually go off line lke oil sands and other high cost producers

PS: the iron ore price floor is being tested as we speak