You are correct of course that immediate export of the technology is not going to happen everywhere for the reasons you cite. But there is nothing unique about US oil deposits, right? (Other than they have been much more intensively picked over than most). I assume other countries must have similar formations - I know South Africa for one (which has no oil deposits at all, just some off-shore gas) is looking hard at fracking in the Karroo region (with environmental opposition).
So while I agree with your point that not all countries can or will adopt the new techniques, I'm assuming that a significant number will do so.
From a macro investment perspective, I still think the spread between nat gas and oil in the US has to be the place to focus. I own some LNG shipping plays and some chemical producers based on nat gas feedstock. Likely there are some paired trades to be had too, shorting companies that are oil based (I assume mostly non-US). But I just don't know the area well enough to know what they are.
Peter
