The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[biomaven0]

The changes to the supply-and-demand picture, and the recent declines in prices, have ignited a debate over whether the so-called super-cycle in commodities is over

My instinct is that it's over. There's a long lag before supply responds to increasing prices and demand, which means that the system by its nature is very prone to overshooting. We've had enough years of higher prices for a lot of new supply to come on-line now, and I'm guessing it's time for the overshoot to happen.

(The picture is a bit different in areas like oil, where the long-term supply constraints will at some point kick in. But the new drilling techniques will presumably be exported to other countries, so the eventual supply constraints have maybe been kicked down the road a few decades).

Peter