Rock Creek Pharmaceuticals Inc (fka RCPIQ)

[NukeJohn]

Revenue Estimates

Based on my visits to over 20 GNC stores over the past 3 months, combined with numerous other phone calls to stores, I am revising my estimates for Star's Q1 & Q2 revenues. The rollout of Anatabloc to GNC retail stores started in March, but the rollout didn't really get going in earnest until April. In March, I suspect fewer than 250 stores had Anatabloc on the shelf, and some of those stores only had a couple of bottles. In March, most GNC store associates had no idea what Anatabloc was....so Star's March sales will primarily consist of their online sales plus GNC's internet website sales. My revised estimate of Q1 revenues in 1.35M +/- 150K. While this is an increase of about 50% over Q4 2011 sales, I think some people may be disappointed by these numbers. There is no need to be disappointed, because Anatabloc is now starting to jump off the shelves of GNC stores.

The real sales growth started in April and is now picking up steam as GNC Sales Associates become trained on the product and word of mouth is spreading from current Anatabloc Users. By the end of April, I think over 2000 GNC stores had Anatabloc in stock. I think that number will grow to over 3500 stores by the end of June. Most stores I talked to in March were only selling a bottle per week (with a few exceptions). Now I think some of the major market stores are selling a bottle or two per day. But, I would estimate the average sales per store of the approximate 2500 stores that now have Anatabloc is about 2 bottles per week. This is pure guesswork on my part, and you can make whatever estimates you think are appropriate, but I think that average will grow to 3 bottles per week per store in May and 4 bottles per week per store in the June/July time frame. FWIW, I think there are some high volume stores that are now selling >3 bottles per day.

My estimate for the sales price to GNC is $45 per bottle. When we combine Star's online sales with GNC online sales and in-store sales, I think Star will have revenues of $5-7 M in Q2. IMHO, the revenue growth in Q2 will surprise a lot of folks.

I am continuing to visit GNC stores to gather sales data to and share my personal experiences with GNC personnel on the benefits I have seen by taking Anatabloc.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=75242570

As I gather more data, I will post my observations.

JMHO,

NJ