Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

Musharraf gets his moment
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

Aug 26, 2005

KARACHI - The first of three stages of local council elections has been completed in Pakistan, with the initial results marking victory for people allied with President General Pervez Musharraf.

The longer-term implications of the results, according to analysts, are that Musharraf can now position himself to further consolidate his power, and at the same time do something to answer international pressure for change in the country.

The local elections involve all of Pakistan's 110 districts. In the first stage 53 districts voted, with the remainder due to cast their votes this week. Then, on September 29 the councilors elected in the first two rounds will elect district chiefs. These chiefs have a power far beyond their local communities: they can influence elections for both national and provincial assemblies, which are due in 2007, the same year that presidential elections will be held.

Thus, by gaining support at the grass-roots level, Musharraf is taking a big step toward ensuring his political future as a democratically elected leader, rather than the military ruler he is now, having seized power in a coup in 1999.

The results of the first round caught many people by surprise, with the political landscape being turned on its head.

The Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), a coalition of six religious parties, suffered badly. However, when one considers that the MMA, which performed strongly in the last national elections, is widely seen as a creation of the establishment as a "pliable" opposition, their latest poor showing is understandable: it's payback time.

From North West Frontier Province, where the MMA single-handedly rules the provincial assembly, to Balochistan, where it is a major coalition partner, the MMA lost ground to pro-Musharraf groups. Although local elections are not meant to involve political parties, the allegiances of the victors cannot be ignored.

And the MMA was not the only loser. The biggest upset involved the Pakistan People's Party Parliamentarian (PPPP), led by former premier Benazir Bhutto, in Sindh province, where it lost many of its strongholds. In Punjab the ruling pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League swept the polls.

"Elections in Pakistan are rigged. Though this is not the official position of the Pakistan People's Party, but my personal opinion, it is a prelude for the creation of a new electoral college in Pakistan, very much on the pattern of Field Marshal Ayub Khan, to get General Pervez Musharraf elected as president for a fresh term as a uniformed president," said the leader of the opposition in the Upper House of parliament and deputy secretary general of the PPPP, Raza Rabbani.

Whether the elections were rigged or not is a separate issue, but there is no doubt that the local elections are a milestone for some important decision-making in the country. Districts and the cities are the real administrative units in the country. Provincial governments and the federal government have their respective jurisdiction for macro-level policy-making.

"The new setup is likely to be used effectively against madrassas [seminaries], which refuse to reveal their sources of income or refuse to register [as per a new diktat]. The idea of an inter-madrassa board has been approved by all religious groups. However, there is a proposal that like modern schools under different boards, madrassas, under an inter-madrassa board, would also come under the control of the executive district officer [education] in their respective districts, and these officers would be fully empowered to send education inspectors to keep an eye on the activities of these madrassas, their syllabus and their income. At the provincial level or federal level it is difficult, but at the district level it is very convenient," said a top official on condition of anonymity.

Pakistan's madrassas have long been considered breeding grounds for Islamic extremists - the Taliban grew out of the country's madrassas.

Following the first round of local elections, the religious parties are now on the back foot, and they will have lost much of their ability to mobilize the masses, while giving Musharraf a better chance to push ahead with more contentious policies.

These include, inevitably, relations with India. Many on the more extreme side of Pakistan's body politic resent the rapprochement of the past year or so with Delhi, as anti-India sentiment has been a powerful rallying cry ever since the nations were carved out of the British Raj in 1947.

Both India and Pakistan have pitched new players into fresh back-channel diplomatic efforts and brought in moderate and progressive faces. The immediate result of this is likely to be the start of a dialogue process between the Indian government and leaders of the Kashmir separatist All Parties Hurriyat Conference led by Mir Waiz Umer Farooq. Such dialogue would effectively isolate militancy and its supporters in the Indian-administered section of Kashmir.

This does not mean, though, that Musharraf is overnight going to abandon the militant cause in Kashmir - there are still far too many vested interests in Pakistan's intelligence and military to do this. (And this regardless of pressure from India and the international community for Musharraf to stop cross-border militancy in Kashmir.)

Last Saturday, Hafiz Mohammed Saeed of the Jamaatut Dawa (formerly the now-banned Lashkar-e-Toiba - LeT) visited Karachi and staged a large gathering behind closed doors at its Karachi headquarters situated near the University of Karachi. Hafiz Mohammed Saeed and the head of the militant wing of the LeT, Zakiur Rehman, had just met with Musharraf in Rawalpindi, where they were advised to carry on with their activities in Kashmir, but at a low level.

Traditional bottlenecks might have effectively been removed by the local council elections, but the traditional mindset in the corridors of power has not changed - at least not yet.

Syed Saleem Shahzad, Bureau Chief, Pakistan Asia Times Online. He can be reached at [e-mail]



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