Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

Pakistan vote seen determining Musharraf options

Musharraf is in a bit of a bind the widening rift between him and conservative religious groups could, if he does not win solidly, mean an alliance with liberal secular forces such as Bhutto’s party.

Bhutto and entourage look to be backed by the United States. Any alliance with Bhutto’s group would give Bush a much stronger foothold in Pakistan.
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This could help keep the Chinese Navy out of Gwadar and will form a tighter circle around Iran.

China's submarines, especially its nuclear attack submarines, will frequent Gwadar [a deep sea port in the Pakistani province of Balochistan, which is being described as China's 'listening post' in the Persian Gulf] in the near future. #msg-670604367


-Am

Pakistan vote seen determining Musharraf options
Thu Aug 18, 2005 10:32 PM IST



By Zeeshan Haider

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistanis voted on Thursday in the first phase of local elections that could determine whether President Pervez Musharraf will eventually incorporate liberal opponents into a future government.

Police reported sporadic violence in which three people died and more than 100 were hurt.

The three-phase elections are officially being held on a non-party basis, but factions are openly backing candidates to try and ensure their power bases ahead of 2007 general elections.

Voting to elect councillors was held in 53 districts and that in the remaining 56 will be held on Aug. 25.

Two men were killed in separate exchanges of gunfire between rival groups of supporters in the central province of Punjab and one man was killed in another shooting incident in the southwestern province of Baluchistan.

In the volatile port city of Karachi, where authorities have deployed 10,000 troops to boost security, about a dozen people were hurt in shooting incidents and other clashes.

On Sept. 29, the councillors elected in the first two rounds will elect powerful district chiefs, known as Nazims, who can use their clout to influence the 2007 parliamentary polls.

The national assembly and four provincial assemblies formed from the general election will chose a president for a five-year term later in 2007.

Aides say Musharraf, a key ally in the U.S.-led war on terrorism who seized power in a bloodless 1999 coup, will stand in the next presidential election. He is widely expected to win, but what sort of coalition he will work with remains unclear.

MUSHARRAF'S RIFT WITH CONSERVATIVES

District poll rivalry is particularly intense in Punjab, Pakistan's most populous and politically most important province.

The main contest there is between the pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League and the opposition Pakistan Peoples Party of self-exiled former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

Analysts say Musharraf will be hoping for solid wins by Muslim League-backed candidates, especially in Punjab and the southern province of Sindh.

Otherwise he would have to consider alignments with liberal secular forces like Bhutto's party, given the apparently widening rift between him and conservative religious groups opposed to his support for the war on terrorism.

Musharraf, who like other military leaders has relied in the past on backing of religious conservatives, has urged voters to shun the Islamic parties that won control of North West Frontier Province and a share of power in Baluchistan in 2002 elections.

Analysts say a poor showing by the Muslim League in the elections and Musharraf's widening differences with the six-party Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal Islamic alliance would increase the chances of reconciliation with Bhutto's party.

Bhutto has lived in exile since 1999, and Musharraf in the past has repeatedly accused her of corruption and warned that she would be arrested if she tried to return.

He has muted such criticisms since he began speaking of the need for reconciliation with moderate forces last year following worsening militant violence, including two attempts on his life.

Reconciliation with the still popular Bhutto would help ease Western criticism of Musharraf's curbs on democracy, but Musharraf would risk a dilution of his current sweeping powers.



© Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.



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