Sojomy,
Thank you for such a considered and informative post. You made some excellent clarifications for me and for one, I am very appreciative.
I agree that the two run-ups are different. The one in Sep 2010 was based upon fact, but the details of not future revenue were not known, in full. But in time, became very clear. However, a decline from $1.76 back down to 11.5 cents hardly seemed justifiable. I guess, in general, one could ask if we were better off today than we were in Sep of 2010, and I would say yes, because the capabilities of the material and the perception that Apple will fully utilize this technology have resulted in over 80 NDA's for Liquidmetal to develop into commercial business. We did not have this base of potential on our doorsteps in Sep 2010.
For the purist, who only looks at the current balance sheet and income statement of the 10K for 2011, granted one struggles to make a pps valuation. What is more meaningful, the lack of birds we have in our current financial condition, or the expectation of futures revenues from those out in the bush? Very hard to decide.
I guess I fall on the side of the more forward looking, the positive changes in mgmt which are effecting a turn-around and an entirely new business model supported by the capital of three different partners.
With all your research on the dates, you still didn't recognize for me which of the dilution possibilities was in effect based upon the actual history. I am sorry if I missed that. Can you clarify it any ways, assuming the two events are analogous, i.e. that the rumor is in fact closer to the truth than fiction, at least for an October release. I don't really agree with your 50
% differential for a June date being wrong if it slipped into an October date....Sure, it doesn't seem likely for June, but the probability for a happening INCREASE as the slippage in date of release occurs........so something wrong in your 50 50 probability, particularly when slippage in delivery dates are more frequent than not, even with Apple.
However, it does seem quite prudent, for one to have a long term account and a short term trading account. this is where I have erred in the past and intend to remedy. Because you drove this point home, as obvious as it ought to be, I value the post if only for this.
Good luck to you.
I guess I was trying to get your idea of where we are in the current run up and when we should get a pullback even if this is only rumor based.
By the way, you don't think the KEP project in the military, which is not really a rumor, but is happening as we speak, with a Sep 2012 deadline for completing preparations for a trial production run is not important. Should not be factored into the current pps.
Or is this stock only dependent upon rumors and not facts?
Please read the KEP program and, if you will, tell me how an analyst should crank in these expectations in the PPS, independent of the Apple rumor. Thanks.
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