A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[kencc]

hi Tom, but if it's a secular bear?

If (OK that's a big if!) we're in a secular, and not a cyclical, bear then I would think that LD AIM is, perhaps, preferable to Classic AIM because long term losses on the buy&hold part of Classic AIM would be avoided whereas the trading part of AIM would still be operable.

Things like PE10 have been at very high levels for years now (long term, typical PE10 range around 14; 1985 PE10 about 10; peak in 2000 about 40; 2003 about 21; current PE10 about 27)There are now a lot of potential catalysts around eg oil, deficits, real estate bubble, etc to perhaps start a market drop to around the typical PE10 range and then maybe we don't get back up to current market levels for years - therefore perhaps a secular bear???

I've been reading through the AIM for ETFs board and in post #14 you thought you might expand the Split SAFE web page to incude stuff about bear markets - I'm still thinking about Split SAFEs etc - have you any more thoughts?

Ken