Wednesday, March 14, 2012 4:03:06 PM
I disagree, jal. While I understand everyone's frustration with the stagnant SP, the best anyone can come up with as for a reason is based solely on conjecture.
I would like to ask you and the Board as a whole ... By what objective metric are we properly valued? Our valuation ratio? Our Market Cap/2P Reserves? Our in situ valuation calculation? Our cash flow multiple / DVM's valuation ratio x stock price? I put these things in the iBox for a reason, folks (open iBox, scroll down, visit "Mining Investor's Toolbox"). They give us informed criteria from which to make objective decisions. The "I don't trust them because they said they'd produce 21K ozs but only produced 18K ozs" valuation doesn't exist.
http://caps.fool.com/blogs/mining-valuation-for-beginners/477764
http://www.grahamanalytics.com/Toolbox/insitu_valuation.htm
Have you heard of the Monty Hall problem? Remember "Let's Make a Deal"? You had to choose one of three doors. Behind one door is a new car; behind the other two are goats. After you chose a door, Monty Hall would open another door (which revealed a goat). He would then ask you if you wanted to switch doors. So what's the answer? Are your odds of winning the car better, worse, or even if you change your mind about the door that you chose? Visit this link for the surprising answer:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
That's the problem. Humans aren't good at probabilities. Statistical objectivity wasn't a requirement for survival 10,000 years ago. If Green 00 comes up three times in a row on the roulette wheel, what are the odds that it will come up a fourth time? 1 in 38, same as always.
My point is that there's been a lot of chatter and grumbling on this board, which is fine, grumble to your heart's content, you have every right to be frustrated with the SP. But what I'm not seeing much of is objectivity. PTQ is a turd? OK, show us the companies that are performing better. Compare matrices. Give us objective reasons why PTQ is a turd. Thus far, joverke posted what was arguably the most objective item I've seen on this board in months ... a graph (reproduced below) comparing PTQ's value with the value of other juniors showing that it's not just PTQ that's a turd, the whole sector is a septic tank!
Regarding objective criteria ...
The EPS suggests were should be trading for roughly $2/sh. In fact, our P/E ratio is lower than 90% of other companies in the Gold & Silver industry. Our relative cash flow is better than 90% of our peers (based on SEP 2011 numbers, which were obviously worse than our current numbers). Our Enterprise Value / Resource Value is about to take a nose dive (which is a good thing, you don't want to buy into companies which are priced higher than their reserves) when we move those Indicated resources at LomPoy to the M&I and P&P categories and complete our annual 43-101 review. Our Gross Margin is more than 68% of other companies in the Gold & Silver industry, which means we have more cash to spend on business operations as compared to our peers. As indicated by the Operating Margin, PTQMF controls its costs and expenses better than 63% of our peers. Our EPS Growth Rate is greater than 92% of our peers in the Gold & Silver industry and there's no where to go but up from here; we haven't been meeting our projections - which is a drag - but the company is making money hand over fist compared to its peers.
So please ... tell me which metric indicates we're fairly valued at the current SP? Which 80K ozs/yr juniors are making as much money and have as great a resource base? If you find them, let me know because I'd like to put my money on THOSE companies. There are numerous resources to find them. I used E*Trade for most of those stats above.
I would like to ask you and the Board as a whole ... By what objective metric are we properly valued? Our valuation ratio? Our Market Cap/2P Reserves? Our in situ valuation calculation? Our cash flow multiple / DVM's valuation ratio x stock price? I put these things in the iBox for a reason, folks (open iBox, scroll down, visit "Mining Investor's Toolbox"). They give us informed criteria from which to make objective decisions. The "I don't trust them because they said they'd produce 21K ozs but only produced 18K ozs" valuation doesn't exist.
http://caps.fool.com/blogs/mining-valuation-for-beginners/477764
http://www.grahamanalytics.com/Toolbox/insitu_valuation.htm
Have you heard of the Monty Hall problem? Remember "Let's Make a Deal"? You had to choose one of three doors. Behind one door is a new car; behind the other two are goats. After you chose a door, Monty Hall would open another door (which revealed a goat). He would then ask you if you wanted to switch doors. So what's the answer? Are your odds of winning the car better, worse, or even if you change your mind about the door that you chose? Visit this link for the surprising answer:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
That's the problem. Humans aren't good at probabilities. Statistical objectivity wasn't a requirement for survival 10,000 years ago. If Green 00 comes up three times in a row on the roulette wheel, what are the odds that it will come up a fourth time? 1 in 38, same as always.
My point is that there's been a lot of chatter and grumbling on this board, which is fine, grumble to your heart's content, you have every right to be frustrated with the SP. But what I'm not seeing much of is objectivity. PTQ is a turd? OK, show us the companies that are performing better. Compare matrices. Give us objective reasons why PTQ is a turd. Thus far, joverke posted what was arguably the most objective item I've seen on this board in months ... a graph (reproduced below) comparing PTQ's value with the value of other juniors showing that it's not just PTQ that's a turd, the whole sector is a septic tank!
Regarding objective criteria ...
The EPS suggests were should be trading for roughly $2/sh. In fact, our P/E ratio is lower than 90% of other companies in the Gold & Silver industry. Our relative cash flow is better than 90% of our peers (based on SEP 2011 numbers, which were obviously worse than our current numbers). Our Enterprise Value / Resource Value is about to take a nose dive (which is a good thing, you don't want to buy into companies which are priced higher than their reserves) when we move those Indicated resources at LomPoy to the M&I and P&P categories and complete our annual 43-101 review. Our Gross Margin is more than 68% of other companies in the Gold & Silver industry, which means we have more cash to spend on business operations as compared to our peers. As indicated by the Operating Margin, PTQMF controls its costs and expenses better than 63% of our peers. Our EPS Growth Rate is greater than 92% of our peers in the Gold & Silver industry and there's no where to go but up from here; we haven't been meeting our projections - which is a drag - but the company is making money hand over fist compared to its peers.
So please ... tell me which metric indicates we're fairly valued at the current SP? Which 80K ozs/yr juniors are making as much money and have as great a resource base? If you find them, let me know because I'd like to put my money on THOSE companies. There are numerous resources to find them. I used E*Trade for most of those stats above.
Discover What Traders Are Watching
Explore small cap ideas before they hit the headlines.

