Hi Clive
Thanks for the response. Without looking in to it more closely, unlike stocks, there is a limit how far TLT will move as there is nothing underlying that can grow in value. By that I mean, over time the value of a stock can grow many times, but a bond fund has a fixed underlying value even if the price can double over the short term with interest rates dropping a little over 50%. But when interest rates go back up the price will be go back down again. Stocks may retain their value due to other reasons and in fact grow.
So what I am getting at is that there is some band of price that TLT is NOT likely to ever exceed except for some black swan. That band from 2002 to now is about $80 - $125
Now to look at those other choices.
Toofuzzy
Take the road less traveled. It will make all the difference.