Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

One more wrinkle on iwfal’s problem...

In #msg-68160499 you said:

…the false negative rate doesn't matter. I tested positive.

In #msg-68161042 you said

You're right. I forgot to add the 0.9% to the denominator.

Actually, the 0.9% quantity you forgot to incorporate when calculating the positive predictive value of the test depends on the false-negative rate as well as the false-positive rate—see the second paragraph of #msg-68160330 where the 0.9% figure is derived. This is yet another counter-intuitive aspect of the kind of data analysis that is important to biotech investors. Regards, Dew