I agree channel inventory is the most likely culprit, at distributor or health care organization level. Maybe some stocked up ahead of a price increase. Maybe what we saw earlier in the year was initial stocking orders out of Europe.
"It's possible that some distributors are depleting their supply of the old tubing sets as they make large orders for the new High-flo ones"
You still don't get it. The needle sets do not replace the tubing sets, they will replace other manufacturers' needle sets. These are TWO different products.
Tubing set revenue does not "always grow". It grows only when the number of F60s in use grows. Since the company chose to discontinue mentioning this number in the last 10K, we cannot be sure if that's still the case.
While new drugs for the F60 can help, in some cases they might hurt as well. For example, the Baxter HyQ SCIG product with Halozyme that is currently before the FDA panel needs to be infused only every third week, not weekly. That means a patient who uses this product buys only USD 100 in tubing sets annually vs USD 300 for Hizentra.
I do not want to sound too negative here. The stock is rather cheap at these levels, even with the lowered profit (last 2 quarters at a 2cents annualized run rate). Considering the insider buying, it is likely this is only a speed bump. The needles are a sure source of growth since they are currently close to zero and current F60 users will be easily won over.
However, with the last financials i feel the margin of safety here has declined, and i am more cautious now.
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