*SCALPSWINGSTRADDLE*

[THE_YAK]

The S&P & my input >>>

Ok folks, this is it, do or die as they say.

Going back as early as September :

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=68145659

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=68116655

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=68102370

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=68062186

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=68062067

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=67998082

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=67954174

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=67923982

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=67898731

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=67613697

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=67468208

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=67460700

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=67331927

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I am a strong believer in trading what the market is offering rather than assuming for it, unless you have a couple billion $ under management and are ok taking a short term hit, don't try to be a hero, your life expectancy will shrink alongside your solvency.

The market has been ranging, in hindsight we can all agree, the links above document the same channel I have been discussing for the past few weeks, both up & down. The market is propped up, yes, inflated, yes, corrupt and manipulated, yes...does that mean you have to lose $ in order to be right ? Definitely not...there is nothing to prove, your $100,000 or $1,000,000 can be absorbed in a matter of minutes yet nobody will ever know.

Think of the market as a vast ocean, all the fish in it interact, one trying to eat the other yet all trying to survive, a death or 100 deaths won't change much to the status quo.

With that being said, I still believe we are at a very critical range, the data coming out is not as pretty as we all would like it to be, the main drive of all economies are not stocks, its the people who make the stocks move up i.e consumer : you & myself included x millions. Without us, there is no economy. The power is in the hands of all avg Joes summed up, the "masters of the universe" are now coming to terms with that simple fact.

Many will say "oh look @ these CEOs/politicians talk out of their rear ends", if for one second you take what they are saying at face value and get frustrated at how bullocks those statements are, don't fret, those people did not get to where they are by caring about how "stupid" their comments are, the stupid is you if you take them serious.

Free markets are not free, they are driven in both directions by the man behind the curtain, since you don't know who that man is, don't call him "stupid", just know he is there, watching, scheming and pulling the strings. The goal is to stay alive @ all costs, factoring all the bullshit in and accepting it for what it is without letting it cloud your judgement, rather, use it as an edge. The S&P closed down negative 5 months in a row, a few more days and this month is up, will they let it close negative 6 months back to back ? Honestly...I hardly doubt it (for technical purposes). We will of course see.

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Now lets translate that in technicals :

The chart below is a stretched out view of the S&P 500 / $SPX.

On that chart are lines that point out to each range and why it is critical.

Many are eager to short just about everything, and I can to some extent agree, but at the same time, be realistic : how many times did you get burned shorting just about everything simply because your "logic" got in the way. If the market is illogical, why try to reason with it ? Just trade it for what it is : numbers.

Short side

A very important number to watch for if the market indeed does top out @ this level is 1,200 with about 10 points in margin of error. (+/- 10).

The extreme right side red arrow points to that level, we break it and we will most likely see more fear/selling pressure down to our next point : 1,120.

If all goes to hell and that number breaks once again, our "no man's land" figure is 1,080 (the S&P doesn't like HD). Anything below that = welcome back 2008/09.

Long side

If the market continues to channel @ our top range (1,200 - 1,220) there is a possibility of a break out as high as 1,260.

The 2 top yellow arrows point to the similarity between the 2 moves so far, historical prices are crucial, they give us an idea as to what to expect. People that make $ in the market don't own a crystal ball, they are just better at anticipating price action, that's it.

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I am giving you folks the 2 scenarios as always, both sides of the story, it is only up to you to pick which ever you "prefer", just don't forget the golden rule : emotions have no say, don't claim to be robotic then pout because the market did the opposite of what you expected. If unsure, hedge, if really really sure > give it your best shot, after all, big risks offer huge rewards.

I added a second chart @ the bottom that highlights the same info as the first one, only using an area chart (a wave is easier to read than sticks).

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I hope this helps.

Chart #1



Chart #2