AI
Friday, September 23, 2011 11:25:57 PM
Dews FoB partner candidates seemed very plausible to me. Things never seem to go as we may think though (e.g. Amphastar getting approved). So I was just speculating (thinking out of my little box 
) my logic goes like this:
- Granted for the worse there is more clarity on a second Lovenox entrant (I don't think they will hold off Watson/Amphastar and likely others for a prolonged period though I think a small royalty isn't outside the realm of possibility). Granted there could be multiple entrants which adjust the valuation but the major valuation adjustment is with the second.
- If Copaxone gets approved I think Momenta can play the waiting game a lot longer on partnering FoB. I have no idea but tend to think if it happens it will be in Q1-Q2 of '12.
- Whether others agree or not I think Momenta management sees their technology (especially as applicable to developing FoBs) their most valuable asset.
- A lot of the bigger players have already said they are pursuing FoBs so it leaves some of the little lesser companies wanting to be a player in the field needing a head start (I am in the camp that believes Momenta can at the very least do that).
With the above being said I find it hard to imagine someone paying (giving up a significant interest) of that market when they could acquire the whole company with an existing revenue stream a good likelyhood for second and keeping 100% of any FoB revenue. I could see hitting on just 1 of the bigger ones making it a cheap deal at say $20 + a CVR for M356. Maybe someone anxious to enter pays a bit more and with the stock beaten I'm sure some of the bigger shareholders would push for a sale. With more clarity from the FDA I think some people brighter then me can project time-line/cost and do DCF's so maybe I turn out to be way off on the $20+CVR figure but I think that information in hand without a Copaxone approval may make the company more of a target to be acquired.
I thought of Baxter and Shire because they are both companies that have publicly stated acquisitions are part of their strategy (and have done numerous deals) and they are both involved in Biologics... and in my little world of companies I am somewhat familiar with.
Would love to hear any other speculations for partners/possible takeover!
) my logic goes like this: - Granted for the worse there is more clarity on a second Lovenox entrant (I don't think they will hold off Watson/Amphastar and likely others for a prolonged period though I think a small royalty isn't outside the realm of possibility). Granted there could be multiple entrants which adjust the valuation but the major valuation adjustment is with the second.
- If Copaxone gets approved I think Momenta can play the waiting game a lot longer on partnering FoB. I have no idea but tend to think if it happens it will be in Q1-Q2 of '12.
- Whether others agree or not I think Momenta management sees their technology (especially as applicable to developing FoBs) their most valuable asset.
- A lot of the bigger players have already said they are pursuing FoBs so it leaves some of the little lesser companies wanting to be a player in the field needing a head start (I am in the camp that believes Momenta can at the very least do that).
With the above being said I find it hard to imagine someone paying (giving up a significant interest) of that market when they could acquire the whole company with an existing revenue stream a good likelyhood for second and keeping 100% of any FoB revenue. I could see hitting on just 1 of the bigger ones making it a cheap deal at say $20 + a CVR for M356. Maybe someone anxious to enter pays a bit more and with the stock beaten I'm sure some of the bigger shareholders would push for a sale. With more clarity from the FDA I think some people brighter then me can project time-line/cost and do DCF's so maybe I turn out to be way off on the $20+CVR figure
but I think that information in hand without a Copaxone approval may make the company more of a target to be acquired. I thought of Baxter and Shire because they are both companies that have publicly stated acquisitions are part of their strategy (and have done numerous deals) and they are both involved in Biologics... and in my little world of companies I am somewhat familiar with
. Would love to hear any other speculations for partners/possible takeover!
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