Replies to post #127253 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

I could see hitting on just 1 of the bigger ones making it a cheap deal at say $20 + a CVR for M356. Maybe someone anxious to enter pays a bit more and with the stock beaten I'm sure some of the bigger shareholders would push for a sale. With more clarity from the FDA I think some people brighter then me can project time-line/cost and do DCF's so maybe I turn out to be way off on the $20+CVR figure but I think that information in hand without a Copaxone approval may make the company more of a target to be acquired.

Suffice to say, if MNTA gets taken out for just $20 + a CVR for mC I would probably not be a happy camper. I guess I would need more clarity on what value you would assign to the mC CVR. All things being equal though, I'd much rather have cash right now than some CVR that may or may not pan out down the road (depends on its exact terms of course.) I still have a CVR from LGND's takeout of PCOP that is in all likelihood going to expire worthless. So, I'm not a fan of the CVRs. ; )

As you note, and I agree, Momenta management probably sees their technology (especially as applicable to developing FoBs) their most valuable asset. I am hopeful that technology, along with mL and mC, will support a higher takeout price, if the takeout comes to fruition.

[oc631]

Would love to hear any other speculations for partners/possible takeover!

Since FOB are basically next generation generics I would look to one of the large generic companies to make a bid for MNTA to remain competitive. Most of these companies have weak balance sheets yet the cost of financing a deal won't get any cheaper than it is today. It could also be an all stock deal. I'm going to re-post a link that you (ghmm) posted when discussing XNPT that's relevant to this discussion.




http://www.pharmacychoice.com/news/article.cfm?Article_ID=780532




As biologics account for an increasing number of new therapeutics approved, generics firms will have fewer and fewer opportunities for straight ANDAs, Phelps said. To grow their businesses, he predicts they will not only become active in follow-on biologics, but will increasingly look to drug delivery and other ways to reformulate existing drugs and use the B2 pathway.




MNTA is one of the few companies specializing in FOB and investors still can't get a read on which biologics they are pursuing. The lack of FOB program disclosure is industry-wide and the danger lies in too many companies pursuing the same biologic. Which companies are making progress in FOB and which are hitting dead ends? We don't even know what they are working on so it's hard to tell.