Biotech Values

[tinkershaw]

the overall effect is to reduce MNTA’s Lovenox take to 25% of its prior level.

I did some detailed calculations last year (lost those now) but that is about where my numbers came out, in the $50-$60 million per year to MNTA. Depending on the variables, one can crank it up to nearly $100 million a year in royalties, but 1/4 to 1/5 with upside to 1/3 is the ball park I believe.

If an authorized generic is released, then figure on 1/5 or less, if not, then 1/4 to 1/5 with some upside potential if there is some luck and power in pre-exsiting contracts and marketing clout that Sandoz has. It will move MNTA to slightly cash flow negative to slightly cash flow positive depending on where it ends up.

MNTA is therefore, now, the copaxone company with gleamings of FoBs. Hardly the end of the world if one can take the ouch.

It is this dang litigation that has my goat on MNTA, that is creating such copaxone uncertainty.

Tinker