Biotech Values

[jb_118]

MNTA

If I'm right, the best case scenario for MNTA is no news, which should result in a steady (albeit unspectacular) increase in stock price over time.

Basically over the last 6,9,12 months the rise in the stock price is fractional to the increase in cash. If you take CW's publicly stated belief that there will eventually be another generic, then each passing month as the sole generic means:

1) 25M in revenue
2) a month closer to that eventual second generic (CW roughly estimated end of the year as i recall).
3) an increased belief that the problems TEVA is facing are more likely to be harder to deal with than one might have originally thought, pushing back our expected date of launch.

tEnox approval date would make for a great over/under line in vegas to watch with the passing of time. It's baked into MNTA stock price somewhere, and my guess is the current "line" would be about first of December or less.

My recollection from the middle of July is that Bret Holy of Oppenheimer raised his estimate for MNTA earnings and remodeled tEnox approval from end of Q2 to end of July (then just 2 weeks later)!