The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[DewDiligence]

Today’s Barron’s has a brief plug for BHP/BBL:

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052702303545104576524552423151280.html

Demand for iron ore and coking coal for steel mills, thermal coal for power plants, copper and other raw materials from fast-growing emerging markets like China and India has been powering BHP's growth for nearly a decade. BHP has spent tens of billions on bolt-on acquisitions, as well as organic growth. Its stock is up more than fourfold since 2001. It will likely add big gains this year, but has only gained 5.7% over the past 12 months.

CEO Marius Kloppers notes that prices of commodities like iron ore have held up well, because demand is healthy in emerging economies. BHP derives 42% of its earnings from iron ore, 21% from base metals, 20% from oil and natural gas, 12% from coal, and the rest from other minerals and metals. More than two-thirds of production is sold to Asia. "The key for BHP now is how they will manage their $20 billion capital expenditure this year, or up to $80 billion on new mines and infrastructure over the next 4½ years," says Bairstow.

…Bairstow has a Buy and A$55 (US$57.53) price target on the stock, or 44% potential upside from its current A$38. [Note: 1 share of BHP ADRs is equivalent to 2 Australian shares of BHP, and 1 share of BBL’s ADRs is equivalent to 2 UK shares of BBL.] BHP, which will earn US$5 a share this year and US$5.10 next, trades at 7.8 times current fiscal-year earnings, or 2.4 times price-to-book, notes McTaggart, who has a target of A$47 and a Buy rating.