Worst case scenario fair value, approval on 9/30, MNTA will have around $7/share in cash+receivable, cash will be declining so a dollar is worth less than a dollar, I'd value the cash at $5/share, royalty flow of around $40M/year without growth and some risk of future competitors, so value that at 5X or <$4/share, market may add $0-$2 for Copaxone chances and $0-$2 for the core technology and the stock may trade for somewhere between $9-13/share.
And there you have your shot at a huge winner if they squeeze out a Copaxone approval someday, 2012 or 2015? Or dead money for years if they get set back.
We each do our own analysis.
I would put cash in at face ($7); mLov offset by costs ($0); core technology ($5); and mCop ($5). That would still huge upside on mCop approval (and downside on set back). But I agree that the market would way overreact if tLov were approved 9/30 - maybe to cash for awhile.
Implied volatility is back. Lots of easy money (my view) to be made selling the volatility. But then, I am a true believer who thinks that the worst will not happen.
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