Biotech Values

[rkrw]

Fair value is different than what a stock may sell for.

I don't think any of us own a stock we think is selling at fair value, by our count, they're all dramatically undervalued :)

Worst case scenario fair value, approval on 9/30, MNTA will have around $7/share in cash+receivable, cash will be declining so a dollar is worth less than a dollar, I'd value the cash at $5/share, royalty flow of around $40M/year without growth and some risk of future competitors, so value that at 5X or <$4/share, market may add $0-$2 for Copaxone chances and $0-$2 for the core technology and the stock may trade for somewhere between $9-13/share.

And there you have your shot at a huge winner if they squeeze out a Copaxone approval someday, 2012 or 2015? Or dead money for years if they get set back.