THE MARKET + IDCC + TA
YESTERDAY
Ps. Bushes stimulus package should help support the market.
A move above 1411 should be very bullish
and would indicate we could retest the highs.
TODAY
We pushed through the 1411 on the naz and closed just above the 1420 Resistance line which is very positive......The 200 SMA is at 1441 ,
Here is the key....we are entering overbought territory .....so we will need volume tomorrow to pick things up to move us ahead .... OTHERWISE in the short term we could see a reversal later in the week. We will need to see the institutions stepping in with some nice block trades. They will clearly set the tone.
A little good news to help naz tomorrow...
After the Bell: Stocks Surge on Forecasts....... Monday, January 6, 5:03 PM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks rose in after-hours trading on Monday, building on the session's gains as investors eyed an upbeat batch of news on sales and earnings from companies like EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC - News) and Mercury Interactive Corp. (NasdaqNM:MERQ - News)
The Dow is nearing resistance at 8770 after having taken out 8650 resistance, and the close above 8770 indicates an attempt to reach 9000 or 9054/9077 within a week is play.
The reason for this current rally is the stimulus package but the market and the media can easily turn this movement around by focusing continuous attention on worries about war, the weak outlook for earnings and the economy. The media and analysts have the ability to be simple-minded in trying to explain every movement of the market.....so when its 'UP' its stimulus package when its 'DOWN' its the war or the economy or earnings....The reality is that the technicals and fundamentals are not as strong as we would like at this moment and the market has resets from time to time.
IMHO
As to the overall long term and intermediate term trends.....while the bears [in the short term] may still have more control then the bulls and will apply downside pressure ....... The bulls will prevail for the year.
The January Barometer Is Now In Effect
[] If the first day of the new year is up, it typically bodes
well for the first five days of January.
[] If the first five days are up, then it typically bodes well
for the month of January.
[] If the end of January is higher than when it started, then
it typically bodes well for the year.Since 1950 there were
no errors in odd years; bear markets began or continued when
January had a loss. The top 29 Januarys (except 1994) had
gains of 1% and launched the best year's final months.
Obviously, we got off to a great start last Thursday.
Three important technical observations I am considering regarding this rally:
[] BULLISH Many downtrends that began in December were broken.
The pullback, after the eight-week rally (October to
December),may be over....the jury is still out...so these
next few days are important .
[] BULLISH The NYSE Advance/Decline Line (Breadth) broke to the
upside. This reaction supports a broad-based rally;
This "a stock-picker's market." I pick IDCC.
Sorry...had to throw that in .lol.
IDCC
Our recent lows appear to be as I said at the time BUYING OPPORTUNITIES.
We recovered nicely from slipping below our 10 and 50 day moving averages recently. We are now above both which is a positive sign. VOLUME is holding its own .... Lets watch for a little stronger volume ... building momentum at this point will move us along. Shorts will ultimately be our best friend...
"shorts will be squeezed ... it is less a question of ...'IF'' they will get squeezed ... more a question of 'WHEN'' they will get squeezed"
You can almost feel the squeeze........
YESTERDAY
If we break resistance at 16.65 we could easily see nice follow through
TODAY
Bounced off resistance today at 16.66 in the morning. We have had nice follow through from our recent lows... If we break resistance at 16.65 we should see a nice move into the 17s....
Tomorrow is anotherday....right now the force is more with us then against us...
For now it is a waiting game.
I believe we may have another Great pocket of OPPORTUNITY before we break out to a new 52 week high.....but that is iffy.... At this point everyday is a buying opportunity....some are just better than others.......
As always I appreciate your thoughts. Alley
Ps......I killed the rat when I moved to this board....Alleyratt
pps....he was friendly rat....lol
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