Monday, July 11, 2011 1:17:12 PM
A repeated call for some caution.
(with all due respect to my buddy Timothy, who has done a FANTASTIC job getting the word out on AMY)
I have seen many projections of the future value of AMY on this board, and over on Stockhouse. The numbers look fantastic, and the assumptions seem reasonable, but please remember that they are still just assumptions... not facts.
We have seen calcs reflecting 10k, 20k and even 30k tons per day, but the company has never officially come out with anything more than 3.5k tons. The drill program may or may not justify a step up in processing capability. We just don’t know yet.
I do not know what the future price of Manganese will be. I do know what it is NOW and what it WAS. Any assumption for higher future prices... is just that: an ASSUMPTION. We have no idea what China will or will not do in the future. We also do not know what the market demand for Manganese will be in the future. It is all guesswork… though I will admit that it is an educated guess.
We have not seen the results of the pilot plant test. We think/hope/want it to go well, but we have not been told that it is a done deal yet. An awful lot is riding on whether the process works in large scale or not. Only small bench tests have been done at this point. Claims that "they must already know the results are good, otherwise why would they engage all the third party work" ... do not fly. We need concrete proof on this one.
The environmental permits are still not in hand. We can talk about how miner friendly Arizona is, how environmentally friendly the extraction process is, etc.... but we still don't have the permits, and you NEVER know what could happen.
Cash: we will need more eventually.... and not just to build the plant once all the other parts fall into place (assuming they do).
We will need operating cash to continue the feasibility studies, ongoing drilling program, etc. This will probably mean dilution, since a partner for going into full production would likely wait until all (if not most) of the open issues are resolved.
Now, before any of you start shooting at me, or claiming that I am a "short", please be advised that I currently hold 300k shares, and may buy more in the future.
-Dan
(with all due respect to my buddy Timothy, who has done a FANTASTIC job getting the word out on AMY)
I have seen many projections of the future value of AMY on this board, and over on Stockhouse. The numbers look fantastic, and the assumptions seem reasonable, but please remember that they are still just assumptions... not facts.
We have seen calcs reflecting 10k, 20k and even 30k tons per day, but the company has never officially come out with anything more than 3.5k tons. The drill program may or may not justify a step up in processing capability. We just don’t know yet.
I do not know what the future price of Manganese will be. I do know what it is NOW and what it WAS. Any assumption for higher future prices... is just that: an ASSUMPTION. We have no idea what China will or will not do in the future. We also do not know what the market demand for Manganese will be in the future. It is all guesswork… though I will admit that it is an educated guess.
We have not seen the results of the pilot plant test. We think/hope/want it to go well, but we have not been told that it is a done deal yet. An awful lot is riding on whether the process works in large scale or not. Only small bench tests have been done at this point. Claims that "they must already know the results are good, otherwise why would they engage all the third party work" ... do not fly. We need concrete proof on this one.
The environmental permits are still not in hand. We can talk about how miner friendly Arizona is, how environmentally friendly the extraction process is, etc.... but we still don't have the permits, and you NEVER know what could happen.
Cash: we will need more eventually.... and not just to build the plant once all the other parts fall into place (assuming they do).
We will need operating cash to continue the feasibility studies, ongoing drilling program, etc. This will probably mean dilution, since a partner for going into full production would likely wait until all (if not most) of the open issues are resolved.
Now, before any of you start shooting at me, or claiming that I am a "short", please be advised that I currently hold 300k shares, and may buy more in the future.
-Dan
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