I believe the data submitted by the USGS to be accurate. The one thing that keeps nagging me about this play is, Did we drill deep enough? This is my argument: Original data indicated that the Triassic was sitting 1600ft higher at the Ma'anit site. Later data indicated that the Triassic, is actually 1292ft higher.Using previous data supplied I determined that in order for them to hit the pay zone they had to drill to 18970ft TVD, assuming 1600ft higher, and 19278ft TVD, assuming 1292ft higher. The concern I have is that the second sidetrack deviated from the vertical more than they think,resulting is less TVD than required.
By my calculation: (19357MD)
TVD (Degree off vertical)
19339 ( 3)
19250 ( 6)
19118 ( 9)
18697 (15)
18302 (19)
With these calculations, I'm trying to show that if the Triassic is actually lower (1292 not 1600) than first thought,and if the angle off vertical was greater than thought, then the TVD they drilled to is not deep enough.
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