Richard, I think the shaving of the 300 Naz points from subsequent scenarios was after the February decline was much sharper than I expected last year. Here is a post from April Last year #reply-17392539 were I mention this "300 Naz points shaving from the original Dec 29th scenario. Actually, I am quite surprised how close that scenario was followed. Don't expect this year to be that good even with a mid course correction. You may also want to read my response to Jeff (a less than "complimentary" post of his in which for one reason or another he goes through major efforts to distort my position, why I know not) #reply-17394543.