I haven't been able to locate the April 2002 revision. Kayaker doesn't seem to have it on his iHub list, and his list of April 2002 post on SI is rather long, so I haven't had time to hunt through it yet. Even without it, you got the general direction right, and your timing was within about a month in each case.
Politics
I do not see an oil embargo as either likely nor feasible.
CORRECT.
I do not think that the Pakistan/India situation will evolve into a "full war" situation...
CORRECT.
The War on Terror, will, however, continue, and eventually ends up with an actual conflagration on Iraq's soil later this year (Iraq may be tempted to "arise" the Islamic world to its defense by a preemptive move against Israel). Actual "hostilities" will not start before next September at the earliest, possibly later (it is a "bitch" to conduct desert warfare in the summer, and even a military buildup will have to wait well after July/August). For political reasons (elections) the actual military activities will probably start in October.
SABER RATTLING, U.N. INSPECTIONS, AND BUILDUPS. NO ACTUAL WAR YET.
These events, strangely enough, could precipitate a year end powerful rally in the markets.
THE RALLY PEAKED ABOUT A MONTH EARLY.
Economy
...by mid 2002, the market will start and sense the second dip (the consumer led recession I have discussed a number of times)...
CORRECT.
I do not expect to see any inflation of major import in the next 12 months...
CORRECT.
This excess liquidity, however, will not by itself greatly stimulate demand, just enough to provide for mild GDP growth, peaking not much above 3.5% at the next peak...
GDP GROWTH PEAKED AT 5.0% IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2002.
Valuation/technical analysis
It is quite clear that valuation models (the type that George and Yardeni have been teaching us) are going to keep a ceiling on the market over the next 12 months.
THEY SURE DID!
...I have the current bull move to continue until the "psychology" of the market breaks.
IT DIDN'T TAKE LONG FOR THIS TO HAPPEN.
...a more likely modality, a gradual buying exhaustion in which a series of tops, each lower than the other if not if heights, in momentum and strength indicators), lead to a major decline to retest the lows.
CORRECT.
We have already had our first top at about 2065 (and 10220 on the Dow) earlier this month. In January I expect a run to at least 2123 (possibly 2160) and probably within the first two weeks.
CORRECT WITHIN 1.2%!
Then a mild decline (no worse than 1960 or so, probable bottom at 2010) lasting most of February.
CORRECT AS TO DIRECTION AND TIMING, BUT IT WAS NOT MILD. ACTUAL BOTTOM WAS 1697.
After that , I have two additional rallies failing around early April and mid May respectively.
THE EARLY APRIL ONE CAME IN EARLY MARCH. MID-MAY WAS CORRECT.
Both of these peaking around 2250 on the Naz (outside possibility of a top at 2388).
ACTUAL PEAKS 1946 AND 1759, RESPECTIVELY. (THIS SHOWS WHY THE APRIL REVISION WAS NECESSARY.)
Strangely, then I have the major decline of the year into late June (a bottom about a week or so before July fourth, make it around June 28th plus minus two day) to about 1650 on the naz.
CORRECT AS TO DIRECTION. BOTTOM CAME ABOUT A MONTH LATER THAN FORECAST, AT 1206.
...(the first run, early in July potentially quite powerful)...
THIS CAME IN AUGUST.
...another major bottom late in September or very early in October this one...
CORRECT.
...possibly to 1450/80 on the Naz.
ACTUAL BOTTOM, 1108.
From that Nadir, I have a straight move up of about 50% on the Naz to around 2150 or so by the end of 2002.
CORRECT AS TO DIRECTION AND TIMING. ACTUAL RISE WAS ABOUT 37%, TO 1521.
I have the Dow doing "better" and "worst", the high for the year, I have at 11350, but the low I have under 7500.
CORRECT WITHIN 3.5% AND 4.5%, RESPECTIVELY.
AI
