The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[Democritus_of_Abdera]

Re: Mon

Dew, reqarding your query as to whether I have thought at all about getting back into Monsanto stock?....

I watch Monsanto, but only as an educational exercise.... I am not ready to make an investment.

I need the education as evidenced by the fact that my intuitive feelings concerning MON’s share price sensitivity to events have been consistently wrong... I often fail to successfully predict events, but when I do get a prediction right, I want my expectations regarding the stock’s response to be right. That is, I like to profit from my investments when I correctly anticipate future events (and I do not regret my losses when my predictions are wrong).

For example, I had held a firm belief that EPA clearance of the Refuge-in-a-Bag formulation for SmartStax would be a strong positive catalyst for MON’s share price.. but, as one can see from a chart of Monsanto’s share prices, there was zero impact upon share price momentum when EPA clearance was obtained during the second week in April 2011 (see #msg-61943132).

Currently, I am predicting that MON and Pioneer (of DuPont) will engage in a price war in the coming year. I expect such a price war, if it happens, to have a negative impact on MON’s stock price... I’m waiting to see if this prediction and expectation come to pass.... It would not surprise me if my prediction of a price war does not come to pass.... But, if there is a price war and MON’s share price rises instead of falls, then I will know that I will gain no pleasure from an investment in Monsanto.