Biotech Values

[mcbio]

But one obvious caveat is that a royalty in the high single/low double digits for one drug isn't usually enough to transform a company even if the drug is fairly successful.

I would say that depends on the market cap, if we are talking about transform as it relates to stock price. ;) Also, I would just add that this is why ARRY's partnership with NVS is really the one to keep an eye on given that ARRY is entitled to much better economics in that partnership compared to the AZN deal (double-digit royalties at all levels plus much higher U.S. royalties if they do end up co-funding development). But, the AZN partnership is critical for the near-term because it's further along and will be the first to possibly show us PoC for an ARRY MEK. (If selumetinib is successful, it's probably not a stretch to think that MEK162 will be successful as well.) Also, AZN is currently running over 40 trials with selumetinib so, even if we are to assume single-digit royalties initially, it's such a potentially large number of indications that this still could turn out to be a material partnership for ARRY if selumetinib proves successful in a large number of these indications.

I roughly doubled my ARRY position today.