Mostly: Classical

[Frank Pembleton]

TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels

 
  
     NEW YORK, May 17 (Reuters) - Following is a selection of  
 comments from analysts on important technical developments in the  
 foreign exchange market:  
      
     CITIFX TECHNICALS TEAM:  
     DOLLAR/SOUTH AFRICAN RAND: "Broke decisively above the  
 6.3850-6.3900 rand area this morning suggesting the potential for  
 an explosive topside move if sustained. Little resistance of note  
 is now met until 6.77 with the possibility that this could  
 culminate with a move to 7.60 and possibly even 8.00. We have  
 constantly articulated in recent weeks that dollar/rand has been  
 a very good leading indicator of the broad based USD direction  
 (particularly over the past 12 months) We continue to believe  
 that to be the case and therefore feel this is yet another  
 indicator that suggests further USD gains in the days/weeks  
 ahead."  
     EURO/DOLLAR: "Consolidating below the break points but  
 ultimately would look for this to move lower and test good  
 support in the $1.2460-$1.2500 range (possibly later this week).  
 While this is good area of support ($1.2462-Pivot point for  
 impulsive move higher in late 2004 and $1.2500-Exactly 11.70 big  
 figures from the high which was the depth of both the 2003 and  
 2004 corrections in euro/dollar) our bias remains that these  
 supports will be broken given the broad based technical  
 developments in favour of the USD and that further losses below  
 $1.2000 will result."  
     AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR/U.S. DOLLAR: "First close below its 200-day  
 moving average since Oct 2004 adding further support to the  
 bearish potential here. We retain our minimum $0.7442-$0.7447  
 target (Dec 2004 low and 55-week moving average) with a weekly  
 close below here suggesting a more aggressive down side potential  
 (Sub $0.7000)."  
     STERLING/DOLLAR: "Remains very heavy with a move towards  
 $1.8000 looking quite likely near term. Major support remains at  
 $1.7480-$1.7705 and it is by no means inconceivable that the  
 major highs of October 1998 at $1.7366 could be tested."  
     DOLLAR/CANADIAN DOLLAR: Long-term "resistance remains under  
 pressure. Converged January 2004 lows and 55-week moving average  
 C$1.2682-C$1.2667 and trend line at C$1.2707. Break above this  
 region on close basis would again be very significant and fit  
 with other developments suggesting a move close to or possibly  
 above C$1.3000."  
     DOLLAR/YEN: "Remains broadly a range trade with an upside  
 bias. Held the 76.4 percent pullback of the 108.90- 104.20 yen  
 move yesterday at 107.79 exactly. A break above here would likely  
 yield a further move higher towards that 108.90 level. Good  
 support is met at 106.15-30."  
      
     SOCIETE GENERALE, FX AND FIXED INCOME RESEARCH:  
     EURO/DOLLAR: Euro/dollar "is likely to try the upside from  
 the $1.2580/$1.2615 Fibonacci retracement but it will take a  
 break above the $1.2785 pullback area to reduce the short-term  
 downside risk of a comeback to the $1.2580/$1.2615 zone."  
     EURO/YEN: Euro/yen "bounced on the 134.53 support area this  
 morning but it would take a break above the 136.25 resistance  
 area to reduce the ST risk of a comeback to 134.53 or even to the  
 133.95/134.10 target zone."  
     DOLLAR/YEN: Dollar/yen's "short-term upside should be limited  
 by yesterday's high of 107.78. A break below the 106.58 support  
 area would take the rate to the 105.95 pullback level."  
     STERLING/DOLLAR: Pound/dollar "is likely to consolidate the  
 downward acceleration started at $1.8910. It will take a break  
 above the $1.8510/30 pullback area to reduce the short-term  
 downside risk of a comeback to yesterday's low of $1.8333 or even  
 a bit lower."  
      
     Currency bid prices at 13:35 GMT. All data taken from Reuters  
 calculated from the levels at 4:30 p.m. (20:30 GMT) in the  
 previous New York session.  
  
                       Last  US Close    %      YTD     2004  
                              16 May.  Change %Change    Close  
 -------------------------------------------------------------  
 Euro/dlr   <EUR=>    1.2638   1.2634   +0.03   -6.79   1.3558  
 Dlr/yen    <JPY=>    107.16   106.78   +0.36   +4.60   102.45  
 Euro/yen   <EURJPY=> 135.46   134.95   +0.38   -2.46   138.88  
 Dlr/swiss  <CHF=>    1.2203   1.2222   -0.16   +7.23   1.1380  
 Stg/dlr    <GBP=>    1.8386   1.8371   +0.08   -4.16   1.9184  
 Dlr/cad    <CAD=>    1.2712   1.2692   +0.16   +5.69   1.2028  
 Aus/dlr    <AUD=>    0.7569   0.7554   +0.20   -3.20   0.7819  
 Euro/swiss <EURCHF=> 1.5422   1.5437   -0.10   -0.28   1.5466  
 Euro/stg   <EURGBP=> 0.6873   0.6875   -0.03   -2.77   0.7069