TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels
NEW YORK, May 6 (Reuters) - Following is a selection of
comments from analysts on important technical developments in
the foreign exchange market:
ANDREW CHAVERIAT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE TECHNICAL ANALYST, BNP
PARIBAS, NEW YORK:
EURO/DOLLAR: "has already done damage by breaking $1.2860.
This suggests re-testing the $1.2830 low of the week. Today's
sharp fall nullifies thoughts of a larger corrective rise above
$1.3000 next week...Expect short term "selling on rallies"
towards $1.2885/$1.2900/15 heading into Monday followed by a
break of $1.2830/1.2766."
(The euro/dollar is) "nearing 3 key levels with bearish
medium term and long term implications.... we're very likely to
see a bearish weekly close today below the three-year uptrend
at $1.2900 and perhaps the 200-day moving average at $1.2848.
A sub-$1.2900 weekly close today would next eye testing 3 key
medium term support levels: $1.2830, $1.2766 (April 14 low)."
...But $1.2730 is the key level. Breaking $1.2730 would
damage the long term outlook via weakening the weekly swing
chart, creating the most prominent secondary high ($1.3480),
in turn increasing the probability that euro/dollar is in a
bear market."
JIM CHOREK, TECHNICAL ANALYST, CHOREK.COM
EURO/DOLLAR: "The plunge continues, recently knocking out
the $1.2825 low. That's further confirmation we're in a
decline from $1.2989. The door is now wide open to
$1.2766 and then $1.2729.
"Looking ahead, the next support targets will be $1.2690
to $1.2627 (61.8 percent of $1.1984-$1.3667),
and then $1.2486 (61.8 percent of $1.1756-$1.2486).
Micro-term resistance is initially around $1.2843 (61.8
percent since $1.2864) and more importantly at $1.2864/68.
DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "With the correction from 1.2016
bottoming well above the 1.1844 (61.8 percent of 1.1737-1.2016)
to 1.1835 (reaction low) support area, the bull trend has
resumed in full force, with the recent acceleration taking out
the pivotal band of resistance from 1.2016 (this week's high)
to 1.2021 (61.8 percent of 1.2197-1.1737) to 1.2043 (reaction
high). 1.2088 is the only resistance standing in the path of
this bull till the short-term high at 1.2197.
Currency bid prices at 12:57 a.m. EDT (1657 GMT). All data
taken from Reuters calculated from the levels at 4:30 p.m. EDT
(2030 GMT) in the previous New York session.
Last US Close % YTD 2004
05 May. Change %Change Close
-------------------------------------------------------------
Euro/dlr <EUR=> 1.2837 1.2956 -0.92 -5.32 1.3558
Dlr/yen <JPY=> 104.72 104.45 +0.26 +2.22 102.45
Euro/yen <EURJPY=> 134.51 135.35 -0.62 -3.15 138.88
Dlr/swiss <CHF=> 1.2048 1.1929 +1.00 +5.87 1.1380
Stg/dlr <GBP=> 1.8928 1.9034 -0.56 -1.33 1.9184
Dlr/cad <CAD=> 1.2392 1.2442 -0.40 +3.03 1.2028
Aus/dlr <AUD=> 0.7758 0.7810 -0.67 -0.78 0.7819
Euro/swiss <EURCHF=> 1.5471 1.5461 +0.06 +0.03 1.5466
Euro/stg <EURGBP=> 0.6782 0.6804 -0.32 -4.06 0.7069
All spots <FX=>
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Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ <TKYFX>
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