The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[westeffer]

I think it's rather simple in principle and demonstrated over and over in bell curves on virtually every production field.

The Cantrell field gives a good example of production rising to a peak of the bell curve then falling only to be interrupted somewhat by evolving recovery techniques and now collapsing because all of the recovery techniques eroded the reserve base to quickly.

All major fields were discovered at least 40 to 50 years ago and we are riding on the far side of the bell curve right now.

It is obvious there is oil left in the ground for another 50 years or so but at what price to extract it? People get excited about the huge deep salt deposits potential off Brazil and yet the oil industry doesn't even have the drilling bits that can drill through the salt. A deposit like this which is raved about is a pimple on an elephants butt compared to Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile the oil sands in Canada can provide some relief to the US once we can overcome the refinery challenges involved, but it isn't simple or cheap.

JMHO