Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Highlights from AGN’s 1Q11 CC:

• 2011 non-GAAP EPS guidance raised by $0.02 to a range $3.56-3.62 (+14% YoY).

• Botox: $365M, +9% YoY in local currencies. Dysport, the main competitor, remains stuck at a 17% procedure share in US cosmetic indications and a de minimis share in US medical indications share (#msg-62706265, #msg-49695053). Xeomin’s US market share in also de minimis. Worldwide in all indications, Botox has an 80% market share.

• Juvederm franchise: $88M, +47% YoY in local currencies, due in part to inventory stocking for a promotional program aimed at patients who used Botox and Juvederm.

• Latisse: $25M, +34% YoY, +47% QoQ in local currencies due to some inventory stocking. Although 1Q11 was on track with AGN’s forecast of 2011 sales of $100M, Latisse is clearly not ramping up as quickly as I expected when the product was approved in late 2008 (#msg-34424441).

• Only weak product was LapBand: $52M, -16% YoY in local currencies; however, LapBand retained a 73% global market share in the category. (JNJ has the rest.)

• Sales of all AGN products in Latin America increased 32% YoY in dollars, thanks in part to the stronger Brazilian Real.

• 15% of AGN’s overall sales are in emerging markets; CEO, David Pyott thinks this will go to 25-30% in the next five years.