Tom, Fuzzy & Husk, I agree that there is know way to know the bottom and thus when to fill the bucket. But on the other hand I think this is a very good reason to study past "Deep Diver's" and to try and develop a means to handle them in the future. We must assume that we have know way of knowing that an equity will run us out of cash, correct?
Well lets also assume that we do know something about the Equity and it's history and it's industry and that it is in a down trend! We want to invest in the equity and we don't want to miss out on the return, but it is still in a definite down trend!!!
Take ADCT for example. At $16 I thought it was a bargain, with AIM and 50% cash reserve, how could one lose? So use AIM by the book and set your buy safe to 30 and sell to 10 and update once a month. Maybe you hit the bottom, maybe you don't? My statement about the concept of "Half Way to the Wall" was AIMed at equities like ADCT. Think for a moment about how much better you might "feal" if you had handled it this way, I emphasize "feal" cause you may still not be profitable.
ADCT - It is in a downtrend from the low $40's. The industry is in a downtrend!
You don't know what to do, so you take a position @ 25% with 75% cash reserve. You set your safes @ 20/10 or 30/10 cause you don't want to burn that cash to quickly. You decide to buy or sell monthly. You also decide that you want a little bit of insurance so you add in the concept of "buying half way to the wall" on the initial buys, not just when you are scraping the bottom of the cash box! That was the point in my previous post!
If you consider HWTTW as an option or a tool for AIM, then use it up front! Why wait till you are down to 20% cash reserve and then kick it in. I stated that the stock was in a definite "Down Trend", you're most probably going to get several opportunities to get fully invested, so be smart about it. If one applied this concept as long as the down trend continued, then one could fill the bucket once they determined that the trend had reversed. I know! How do we know it has reversed? That is up for debate...
I've read about many AIM tweaks and "Half Way to the Wall" was one of the first, in fact I think it was discussed at SI long before the TECH Wreck! But I don't ever remember any discussion about the "possibility" of it being applied by the "purchasing department" on the initial purchases. What harm could it cause? So what if you purchased half and got a sell verses buying half, buying half, buying all?
These are just some of my own thoughts based on my own AIM experience in this once in a life time Bear market... FWIW
Keith
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