Biotech Values

[zipjet]

mC revenue potential and TEVA's response. (Assuming mC approval and launch)

I think the detailing potential misses the more significant economic problem for the parties.

C is largely delivered to patients via a specialty pharma channel using over-night or expedited delivery to the patient who self-injects.

IS this specialty channel(s) subject to market stratification similar to what we have seen in the mL situation where SNY has been able to maintain share by cutting special deals?

IF so, then we should see something similar with a roughly similar split - call it 50:50 or perhaps even 60m:40s.

But what happens if the specialty channels are more controlled by the third party payers (more like the pharmacy channel)? [I think this is true.] Absent a TEVA response, that could drive mC penetration to the 80%-90% range. There is no way TEVA will allow that result nor should they. So the launch of a TEVA AG is likely* with the AG matching price with mC. Under this condition I would guess that mC takes about 40% of unit sales at a 15% discount to tC pricing before launch.

JMHO

ij