Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

For MNTA investors, commercial success of Gilenya and BG-12 (in due course) has both bullish and bearish aspects. The bearish aspect—increased competition for Copaxone—is obvious and has been quantified to some degree, e.g. in #msg-59293907.

The bullish aspect of these drugs’ commercial success is subtler and may not yet have been detected by most investors: if Laquinimod turns out to be a commercial lightweight compared to Gilenya and BG-12, Teva might opt to continue some US detailing of Copaxone even after it goes generic. With a fully substitutable generic on the market, NVS/MNTA could thereby get a free ride from Teva’s marketing efforts.

If anyone here thinks this is crazy, please think again. If Teva is unable to “switch” a substantial number of Copaxone users to Laquinimod because the Laquinimod clinical data do not measure up, Teva does not have another big prospect in its pipeline to fall back on. Teva will thus have no choice but to maintain at least some detailing of Copaxone in the US market to soften the financial blow from genericization.