Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Guessing MNTA’s Copaxone/Lovenox Milestone Payments from NVS

[Corrected typo in the Lovenox-EU paragraph (thanks, Rock Rat).]


The events that trigger milestone payments from NVS to MNTA are set forth
in the SEC documents cited at the end of this post. The sizes of the individual
milestone payments are unknown because the figures have been redacted in
the SEC filings; however, we know from disclosures by MNTA that the total
potential milestones from Copaxone in the US and Lovenox in the EU are
$163M (#msg-44687884). We also know that there are five anniversary
milestone payments for Lovenox in the US that are separate from the
$163M figure mentioned above.

The numbers below are my guesses for the individual milestones. These
guesses could be off, of course, but I think they are probably close enough
for investment purposes. Feedback welcome.


COPAXONE U.S. Milestones*

[Guess: $115M all told.]

• FDA approval of Copaxone ANDA (provided that Mylan’s ANDA is not approved first). [Guess $35M.]

• Launch of generic Copaxone (provided that Mylan does not launch first). [Guess: $15M.]

• Payments on the first N anniversaries [guess: N=5] of the US launch if there is no other generic Copaxone in the market and the net profits from generic Copaxone exceed an unspecified threshold. [Guess: $30M ($6M x 5).]

• Exceeding an unspecified lower sales threshold during a 12-month period. [Guess: $15M.]

• Exceeding an unspecified higher sales threshold during a 12-month period that does not overlap with the period for the lower threshold described above. [Guess: $20M.]


LOVENOX EU Milestones*

[Guess: $48M all told.]

• Launch of generic Lovenox in any EU country. [Guess: $28M.]

• Payments on the first N anniversaries [guess: N=5] of the first launch in any EU country if there is no other generic Lovenox in the EU and the net profits from generic Lovenox in all EU countries exceed an unspecified threshold. [Guess: $20M ($4M x 5).]


LOVENOX U.S. Milestones‡

[Guess: $12.5M remaining.]

• US launch of generic Lovenox: $5M already paid by NVS.

• Payments on five unspecified anniversaries of the US launch if there is no other generic Lovenox in the market. [Guess: $12.5M ($2.5M x 5).]


*From 2006 NVS-MNTA collaboration (http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1235010/000110465906072600/a06-21723_1ex10d3.htm ).

‡From 2003 NVS-MNTA collaboration (http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1235010/000104746904007521/a2130432zex-10_4.txt ).