Guessing MNTA’s Copaxone/Lovenox Milestone Payments from NVS
[Updated for today’s disclosure of a $10M milestone payment for 1-year anniversary of the Lovenox launch.]
The events that trigger milestone payments from NVS to MNTA are set forth in the SEC documents cited at the end of this post. The sizes of the individual milestone payments are unknown because the figures have been redacted in the SEC filings; however, we know from disclosures by MNTA that the total potential milestones from Copaxone in the US and Lovenox in the EU are $163M (#msg-44687884).
We also know that there are five anniversary milestone payments for Lovenox in the US that are separate from the $163M figure mentioned above; the first of these payments, in the amount of $10M, was paid by NVS on 7/23/11.
The numbers below are my guesses for the individual milestones. These guesses could be off, of course, but I think they are probably close enough for investment purposes. Feedback welcome.
COPAXONE U.S. Milestones*
[Guess: $115M all told.]
• FDA approval of Copaxone ANDA (provided that Mylan’s ANDA is not approved first). [Guess $35M.]
• Launch of generic Copaxone (provided that Mylan does not launch first). [Guess: $15M.]
• Payments on the first N anniversaries [guess: N=5] of the US launch if there is no other generic Copaxone in the market and the net profits from generic Copaxone exceed an unspecified threshold. [Guess: $30M ($6M x 5).]
• Exceeding an unspecified lower sales threshold during a 12-month period. [Guess: $15M.]
• Exceeding an unspecified higher sales threshold during a 12-month period that does not overlap with the period for the lower threshold described above. [Guess: $20M.]
LOVENOX EU Milestones*
[Guess: $48M all told.]
• Launch of generic Lovenox in any EU country. [Guess: $28M.]
• Payments on the first N anniversaries [guess: N=5] of the first launch in any EU country if there is no other generic Lovenox in the EU and the net profits from generic Lovenox in all EU countries exceed an unspecified threshold. [Guess: $20M ($4M x 5).]
LOVENOX U.S. Milestones‡
[Guess: $20M remaining.]
• US launch of generic Lovenox: $5M already paid by NVS.
• 1-year anniversary of US launch: $10M already paid by NVS.
• Payments on four remaining unspecified anniversaries of the US launch if there is no other generic Lovenox in the market. [Guess: $20M ($5M x 4).]