Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MNTA)

[RockRat]

>>Sanofi's "U.S. sales were €233 million down 51.7%."<<

Does that change your EPS numbers any? Maybe one could do a crude calculation (that won't capture the m-enox inventory fluctuations) based on those metrics for the prior quarter. They were 255 million euros last Q, with generic impact for about 75% of the quarter. Sandoz' enoxaparin sales were ~$225 million euros. So if the total US market is 480 million euros, Sandoz captured a bit over half at ~240 euros. That would come to something like $310 U.S dollars as a revenue guestimate for m-enox. Since the 3rd q came in at $292 million in a short quarter, that does imply some channel stuffing, all right (normalizing it, 292/.75 is north of $380, implying $70 million or so in the channels).

Does that sound right? It's a little late for accurate number crunching from me . . .

But that works out to about 60 cents to MNTA per my crude model. I think that agrees with what you posted elsewhere, and puts EPS at the low end of the range. Thus , if nothing else of consequence is announced at earnings we could see today's gain go bye-bye. Unless the idea that this latest patent is of true significance and a major psychology changer takes hold. I do not buy that thesis. As has been pointed out, competing generic sponsors are the ones that would be affected, and they had no chance, anyhow. Thus the little run today and after hours had me a bit puzzled.

Thinking maybe one last buying op in the $12s could be coming, especially if the market finally takes a breather here.

Regards, RockRat