Biotech Values

[jbog]

10nisman,


The 'scripts' we follow are pharmacy scripts only and while those scripts have increased, they make up the minor portion of Lovenox distribution.

I really think that we should not even think about the 3rd quarter sales because we don't have an accurate handle on the 'pipeline fill' portion of it.

I assume that after the 1st two months of sales the pipeline fill or at that point we could call it inventory had hit a stable level. If that's true, then we can assume the 4th quarter (month 3,4 and 5) would represent the norm.

Now, why is that level not up to our expectations is the real question. I haven't followed it closely but it could be production limitations, SNY's hospital contracts or something else. The note that I read a couple of weeks ago from the Cleveland Clinic basically stated that SNY matched the generic price so there was no reason to use the generic.

Let's keep in mind that Momenta's price isn't close to being at fair value even at these sales levels.