Biotech Values

[10nisman]

I think you're going to be surprised. Channel stuffing probably had a minor effect on the 4th quarter results. The run rate is probably much closer to $750m/$800m at this point.

How could channel stuffing not have had a major effect on Q4 performance? Sales declined from $292 million on 2/3 of a quarter to $170 million for a full quarter while percentage scripts increased throughout Q3 and Q4. Either there was a massive decline in sales price (which makes no economic sense) or channel stuffing had a material impact on Q4 performance. There could have been a minor impact on sales from treatments getting deferred until 2011. Q4 mL sales would have likely been 20-35% higher had they not been pushed into Q3. What else could reasonable explain Q3 vs. Q4 performance?

10nis