Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Actually, Jeff George said on the CC that the run rate consistent with a 40% dollar share of the US Lovenox market is slightly higher than what was booked during 4Q10. In other words, some destocking is still going on, but NVS does not want to say how much.

At the product launch in July, NVS overloaded the wholesale channel because they were concerned about SNY’s launching an authorized generic. As NVS’ concern about an AG has gradually declined, it has become less advantageous from a competitive standpoint to maintain an overstocked channel, and NVS has allowed the stocking level to regress to a more typical level for an injectable drug such as Lovenox.

My guess is that the current end-user demand for NVS’ generic Lovenox has an annualized run rate of $840-900M, which implies that $40-55M of destocking occurred in 4Q10.