Mish, you are really funny and show ignorance in reading and understanding, at each bottom and or top, the potential for the next targets (up and down) is of course modified. You bring up a May 17, 2001 post, and few post later I even had a small exchange with Ork, as to whether we revisit 1600 or not, the answer was, depends on how we handle we handle the 2250 to 2388 area, it so turned out that on May 22nd/01, I turned bearish. If you have good memory or even reading the posts you cited, I started with an August low with a potential retest in October, and in August, as we were not developing the type of sentiment indicators required, I invoked the "coalescence model" of the two bottoms into one (I had Sep 16 as the date, mind you we ended up there within a week, and if you add the closure exactly). The scenario of a powerful bull died already in November, 2001, and the lack of a meaningful retrenchment in December killed the possibility of even a 3000 scenario for 2002 (as clearly stated in the Dec 29/01). What you stated was that I never turned bearish in 2002, and that is simply idiotic, or that I still expected 3000 on the Naz in 2002. When you want to succeed in the market, you try and get a broad road map, and change it as the time approaches, as I cut 300 Naz points from the Dec 29/01 forecasts for the post April 2002 period. Ample time to change stance and flow with the market. Your problem is that you are married to one scenario (whether it is down or up) without any understanding of how to modify your own stance as the market changes.
Last, a lot of traders here on this thread are doing equally well, if not better with their trading (following their own scenarios they share with all of us). mlsoft, for instance is often in the same stocks I am in, on the short side, we both make money, because he lays his short quite often minutes before or after I sell my longs similarly covers his shorts within minutes and often at better prices) that I go long. Many others here are quite successful, for instance, whaz, brithness and D2 are others doing quite well with their day trading. For those not facile with that fast pace, there are presented swing trading strategies as well as from time to time quite successful Dow gambits strategies (so far each of the two since July, lasted each about a month) and returned a clean 40%, ample time even for "newbies" to follow, except, maybe The realist).
I have made my point clear to you, I would rather you did not copy or quote my posts where I cannot respond, I can't force you since it is an open forum, but once more, I implore you, to simply respect my wish which I have expressed to you more than once before. Otherwise, I am put in a position where people send me PM's with citations (sometimes out of contest) of distortion of my position (like I never turned bearish in 2002, even you should have known better, since you lauded at least the Nassacre call) and it just waste my time to respond to such citations. This will certainly prevent any future misunderstanding in the future.
And yes, I am way to optimistic long term (like 1946 as a potential top for the current cyclical bull move), but when the time comes to look at the market and decide if a local top is in place, I call it as I see it them. The last four top calls had a score of 3 right on and one bad (the October 24th call at the 1326/47 range was not a real top as I expected, after a 50 points initial decline the market followed whaz dictum and made a new recovery high).
Zeev
AI
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