Thursday, October 28, 2010 11:43:26 PM
your points are very well founded and clearly portray the risks that we still face; however, I would argue that announcing a deal is not the same thing as pricing a deal and we did not know until today where, when, or if kro would price. The market just cut a check for $320mm at a specific valuation. Thats a very different conversation than claiming a valuation on a company with a 4% float is a valid comp. It is the most recent transaction and it is a sizeable transaction. That should carry some weight in a valuation fight. The company has attempted to lowball the valuation of this business throughout the bankruptcy. First they try to sell it to huntsman for a song and when it becomes clear thy wont get away with it they cozy up to the unsecured creditors. When it becomes clear that there is significant value to the equity, the epa amazingly comes back asking for more money -- not huge money, but just enough to make it complicated for the equity to compete given the low sharecount. It sounds more like the company offered it to them than the epa asked for it. All this and equity is supposed to get out of the money warrants with a valuation of .02-.08 cents while wanlass and his cronies cut themselves 11% of newco? WTF?! At any rate, a pattern is becoming clear. They can keep playing these games and they could win, but they risk losing control of the business or completely missing the upcycle. throwing the equity a 10 bagger is nothing in the whole scheme of things. losing control of the business because they overplayed their hand would be very costly.
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