Biotech Values

[zipjet]

I think the share price is close to reflecting this consensus, but I don't think it is "more than priced in." I think if it plays out accordingly, we could see a drop to about $10 (it always overshoots; trot out your favorite conspiracy theory for why), before bouncing to $12 or so. Then, MNTA might slowly ramp up into the anticipated date of a Markman ruling, which now seems to be in the first half of next year.

My views echo RockRats on likely trading pattern if Teva gets approval.

I was thinking about VPHM as a stock that has a similar "overhang". For VPHM, the overhang is approval of a generic Vancocin.

But if you take a look at the EV/EBITDA of VPHM and use it to imply a value for MNTA, you get a stock price of 22-26.

ij