The questions I had Ms. Chen of Collins Stewart ask a couple of weeks ago pretty much address this question. Since several analysts were asked to ask, I am going to figure everyone knows Teva's enox facilities have been inspected and likely approved. So not sure why this horse is being beaten again as if it's novel.
On other subjects related to MNTA that have caught my attention since then . . .
So far as I know, Oppenhimer is the only house that thinks Teva's enox won't be approved within a few months. Since Momenta is using considerable cash flow to pay off fees to Sandoz, the consensus is that the really big flows are not going to come, that the dual generic scenario (which likely causes the AG scenario, so really the 3 generic scenario) will kick in just as Momenta finished paying Sandoz off. I think the share price is close to reflecting this consensus, but I don't think it is "more than priced in." I think if it plays out accordingly, we could see a drop to about $10 (it always overshoots; trot out your favorite conspiracy theory for why), before bouncing to $12 or so. Then, MNTA might slowly ramp up into the anticipated date of a Markman ruling, which now seems to be in the first half of next year.
Analysts seem more divided over the Copaxone litigation, which makes sense, since that situation is in comparatively early days.
WRT the chain mapping patent, I don't know how protective it might be from Teva's method, whatever that might be. Proof should not be so hard, as the FDA has this information. Granted, it's confidential, so MNTA presumably would have to have some plausible basis from another source to get the ball rolling on that, yes? So maybe it's hard in that sense. But couldn't they subpoena the info from the FDA, and have the judge look at it under seal, or something like that?
Teva is never going to announce withdrawal of its enox application for economic reasons, as somebody was dreaming about this morning. If Biomaven's calculation of t-enox adding 15 cents to Teva's annual EPS is anywhere near correct, Teva will keep trying.
We already know the launch is going as well as could be expected, so the NVS and MNTA quarterly announcements aren't going to move the share price much.
So that means that MNTA is dead money until the Markman ruling. Sure, they could announce a partnership before then, but I would not bet on it. The FDA isn't going to give clarity on FoB regulation until next year, and 118 won't be partnered unless MNTA gets creative. I don't think they have the latitude to get creative until NVS is paid off, and there is still no t-enox.
The real annoyance to me is the slowness of the Markman ruling. A while back I accumulated a little position in December options, figuring that something material like that would happen before then. I know think they are toast, and hold them for a low odds black swan event for shorts.
Long term, I have no problem holding my core shares, as 2011 should be eventful after the first couple of months, and I would add to my position on news of T-enox being approved. Just hoping I guess right about the bottom. It'll probably be a two part add.
Regards, RockRat
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