Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

Steph, I posted the following last November. By then it was very obvious that the US and Israel had to get Syria out of Lebanon.

This development in Lebanon which I think we may see as the next ‘hot spot’ in the Middle East pretty much surrounds Israel with al Qaeda who is moving into Northern Africa and have been credited with the bombing of Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. 11/18/2004
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The assassination of Hariri could do just that.

I have not had time to turn on my computer and it doesn’t look like things are getting better. Thank you and Coal for keeping up the board.

Assassination: All eyes on Syria
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

Feb 16, 2005


KARACHI - The assassination on Monday of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri, who opposed the Syrian military occupation of Lebanon, places the spotlight firmly on Syria, a safe haven for Palestinian militant organizations.

An explosion in front of Beirut's St George Hotel killed nine people in the well-protected motorcade in which Hariri was traveling, in addition to the 62-year-old billionaire politician. A previously unknown terrorist group (al-Nasr wa al-Jihad fi Bilad al-Sham - Victory and Jihad in Palestine, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria) has claimed responsibility.

Hariri, a Sunni Muslim, held office for 10 out of 14 years in the post-civil-war period starting in 1992, winning three elections and serving as premier from 1992 to 1998 and again from 2000 to 2004. A self-made billionaire who helped rebuild his country after decades of war, he recently moved to the opposition after a dispute with Syria.

He strongly backed United Nations Resolution 1559, which calls for the withdrawal of the approximately 17,000 Syrian troops stationed in Lebanon - based mainly east of Beirut and in the Bekaa Valley - a demand unacceptable to the government in Damascus. Hariri had strong connections with the Saudi royal family; he even held Saudi nationality in the 1980s.

"Sooner or later we will hear an accusation from Washington that Syria was behind the killing of Rafik, and then new controversies will be carved out which will question the Syrian presence in Lebanon. Of course, the situation will finally force Syria to pull out its troops, and of course a vacuum will be created, which will be filled by NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization] troops once again in the region," said veteran Palestinian writer Samir Allawi, who is an expert on Middle Eastern affairs.

"The plot seems to be multi-faceted to fix several issues," Allawi elaborated. "It is aimed at both Syria and Lebanon, which are a permanent pain in the sides of Israel," he said. "Syria is the only home left for the three top powerful militant groups - Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah - and Syria unofficially serves as a strategic back yard for the Palestinian resistance movement. Pressure on Syria will be used as a bargaining chip to minimize the presence of these organizations until their operations become null and void [as previously happened in Jordan].

"There are groups in Lebanon which are in favor of the presence of Syrian troops in the region, including among the rulers, but there is a powerful opposition as well. Rafik Hariri's killing will ignite controversies concerning the Syrian presence and thus create divisions in society, which will finally give the US a role in this region in the shape of a NATO presence and a chance to manipulate Lebanese internal and external policies," Allawi maintained.

The main Israeli-US concern in Lebanon is Beirut's support of the Palestinians' right to return to their homeland. Despite repeated pressures and assurances of aid packages, Beirut has refused to give Palestinians in Lebanon citizenship. If this happened, they would lose their right to return to their homeland once and for all. At present, they are refugees in Lebanon and retain the right to return, a dangling sword on Israeli interests.

In Syria, government spokesman Buthaina Shaaban said Syrian-Lebanese relations had "nothing to do with what happened". "Maybe this horrendous crime is a beginning to a new conspiracy that we need to alert the international community [to]," Shaaban said. "This is all part of the imperialistic conspiracy that the region has been suffering from for years."

Apart from the political implications of Lebanon granting 700,000 Palestinian refugees citizenship, it would disturb the ethnic balance in the country, making the Sunni Muslim population the majority. At present, Sunnis represent 35% of the 3.5 million population. Christians comprise about 38%, while Shi'ites account for 27%. Keeping this divide, according to Lebanese law, the president of Lebanon must be a Christian and the prime minister a Sunni, while the Speaker of parliament must be a Shi'ite.

The Syrian connection
The Syrians sent troops to Lebanon during the civil war between 1975 and 1990 on the request of the Christian-dominated government. The war ended with the Taif Agreement, negotiated in the Saudi city of that name by members of Lebanon's parliament. The agreement covered political reform, the ending of the war in Lebanon, the establishment of special relations between Lebanon and Syria, and a framework for the beginning of Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon. It was signed on October 22, 1989.

By then Syria held sway over most of the country through its military presence, through alliances with militias such as Hezbollah in the south, or through the control that its security services exerted. Under the Taif Agreement, Syria was to withdraw its troops and curtail its influence in Lebanon, but it never completely did either. This led to resentment among the Christian minority, but also among large segments of the Muslim population.

Things came to a head last summer when Damascus forced the Lebanese parliament, in an act of naked interference, to reappoint the unpopular pro-Syrian president Emil Lahoud for another two years. This led to UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which demands the total withdrawal of Syrian troops from the country and stipulates an end to Syrian meddling in Lebanon.

Hariri was prime minister at the time, and opposed the move to reappoint Lahoud, with whom he had clashed frequently. But the Syrian leadership forced him to back down. Several months later he resigned.

Hariri previously had good relations with Damascus. He had many contacts in Saudi Arabia, including among the royal family. These helped smooth the way with the Syrians. Now, however, Hariri was for the first time directly opposed to the Syrians in the run-up to parliamentary elections that were expected this May. He was said to have had a good chance of leading the opposition to victory on an anti-Syrian ticket.

This makes it all the more likely that the fingers will point at the Syrians or their proxies. The theory that opponents of Damascus did it to create chaos and force the Syrians out seems far-fetched. They stood a good chance of striking a serious blow at the Syrians at the ballot box, and did not need such a throw of the dice at this point. Also, the May elections have been thrown into doubt now because the violence would afford Lahoud a perfect excuse to cancel them.

In the short term the effect of the assassination may be to strengthen Syria's hand. Lahoud has authority over the army. The Syrians can also use the unrest to say that Lebanon is still unstable and therefore in need of continued Syrian presence. This has been a tactic in the past.

France has called for an international inquiry into the attack, but that is unlikely. It is doubtful in any case that investigators will be able to untangle Lebanon's Byzantine political and militia scene.

For Lebanon the blast means a throwback to an earlier, uglier time. Uncertainty and tensions along political and sectarian lines could once again increase. Foreign investment, crucial for a country as burdened with debt as Lebanon, is also likely to suffer.
Syria is already the target of US sanctions under the "Syria Accountability Act" that calls for Damascus to stop supporting terrorist groups. Washington is also upset with the Syrians over alleged support to militant groups in Iraq.

US officials said Hariri's killing was an "ominous development" on two counts: first, because it raised concern that Lebanon could plunge back into the civil war that it suffered throughout the 1980s; and second, because it underscored growing US impatience with the role played by Syria in the Middle East. Moves are already under way for stiffer sanctions on Syria, a development supported by the European Union.

Reports from the southern Iraqi cities of Najaf and Karbala say that copies of a proposed Islamic constitution, written by Kadhum al-Haeri, a senior Iraqi cleric who lives in the Iranian holy city of Qom, are being distributed. The proposal is based on the teachings of Muqtada al-Sadr's uncle, a revered cleric, and are prominent in many mosques. At the same time, the US is busy arming private militias to stop the spread of calls for "rule by the clergy" in Iraq (see Asia Times Online, US fights back against 'rule by cleric's, February 15).

Now, the high-profile killing of Hariri, right after the conclusion of the Iraqi elections, could be the spark to set off latent conflicts in the region.

(Additional reporting by Ferry Biedermann of Inter Press Service in Amman, Jordan.)

Syed Saleem Shahzadis Bureau Chief, Pakistan, Asia Times Online. He can be reached at [e-mail].

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GB16Ak02.html

This excerpt is from your post.
Who benefits?
Only Israel appears to benefit from Hariri's assassination. Significantly, one of Hariri's consultants, Mustafa al-Naser, told Iranian state news agency IRNA on Monday that "the assassination of Hariri is the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad's job, aimed at creating political tension in Lebanon". An array of Arab Middle East analysts, as well as the Lebanese government, point out that the blast was eerily similar to previous Israeli-orchestrated bombings against former Palestinian leaders.

International public opinion may forget that it was current Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, then a general, who invaded Lebanon in 1982, supported by falangists, practically destroyed Beirut and plunged Lebanon into civil war. Hariri was Sharon's opposite: almost single-handedly he guided Beirut's reconstruction.

Sharon's government may now blame its fierce enemy Syria - as it has already done - for Hariri's assassination. Syria and Israel, technically, remain at war. Moreover, if the accusation sticks, Sharon benefits from public opinion turning to revulsion against Syria in the wider Middle East. The logical progression would lead to a joint Israeli/US attack against the Syrian regime by early 2006 at the latest - which, in conjunction with an attack against Iran's nuclear facilities, compose what is no secret to anyone: the ultimate neo-con dream ticket.

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