The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[OakesCS]

obama GOM oil myths

from 22Sept10 WSJ
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703989304575504201916757646.html?mod=WSJ_hps_MIDDLEForthNews

The Real Gulf Disaster
The well is plugged. The moratorium drags on.

...the Administration issued an "inter-agency report" suggesting its decision to effectively shut down the Gulf's largest industry has caused little economic damage....

According to the analysis, the expected six-month ban on deep-water drilling will result in 8,000 to 12,000 jobs lost. The report crows that "these estimates are lower" than those predicted by other studies and that, moreover, the jobs will "not be permanently lost," but will return when the ban is lifted. It acknowledges the ban will result in a reduction of some $1.8 billion in spending by drilling operators over the six months and a loss of 30 million barrels of oil in 2011, but dismisses these figures as trivial.

...The Administration report also argues that the moratorium will merely "delay" 30 million barrels of Gulf oil production in 2011, that this is "small . . . compared to world production,"

The comparison is ludricous and flys in the face of 'deficiencies' that the last several administrations have been trying minimize. The Macondo well is permanently 'delayed' and it probably would've contributed ~15M bbls/yr. The former MMS has issued only 5 permits since June (for <500 m depth) when > 10/month is the norm.

This US Senate report contradicts Obama's claims.
http://jec.senate.gov/public//index.cfm?a=Files.Serve&File_id=eda43b69-902a-4a3d-ab09-e4a20a905ac1
It should be noted that the economic affects reported are conservative numbers because they use a low price for oil, they neglect the impact of the defacto shallow water moratorium, and they use production numbers that are too low (see below).

DOE's data is less delusional
http://www.eia.doe.gov/special/gulf_of_mexico/index.cfm
[note offshore GOM oil production is 1.6 M bbls/day of a total of > 18 M bbls/day of oil consumed in the US. This is 30% ahead of projections made by the MMS < 2 yrs ago.]

http://www.gomr.boemre.gov/PDFs/2009/2009-012.pdf

the ability of this administration to combine arrogance, incompetence, and self-delusion is astounding.