hseitz, with all due respect, we are not following INTC or AMD into 4Q, but, instead, lagging behind.
This is from memory, but INTC showed a minor increase for 3Q and projects a further modest increase for 4Q. Yesterday, AMD announced a terrible 3Q, but the company projects 20% revenue growth in 4Q, QoQ. As I write this, AMD is up 22%.
My point? It really is a variation on my song from last night. If we are in such a hot spot in the chip market, and if INTC and AMD!!! are guiding increasing revenues for 4Q, why are we guiding as much as a 22% decrease in revenue? Not to mention at the same time we are confidently (brazenly??) asking the investment community to believe that 4Q03 revenues will be $50M+, a 900% QoQ increase (might want to check my math on that).
I also take issue with the "nuclear winter" analogy, at least in the realm of microprocessors. This isn't telecom. There is a market shift taking place, as desktops are becoming a mature marketplace and there is little reason for consumers to upgrade. I write this on a PII 300Mhz Gateway which is quite acceptable for my needs. This machine has a DSL feed and feels to me to be functionally much faster than my 1.5GHz Gateway at home with dialup Internet access. I do buy into the agrument that the microprocessor marketplace is moving to mobility. However, this makes my underlying question all the more urgent.
regards, wsh
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